I read a number of reports this week trying to kill off the idea of the great rotation back into equities. This prompted me to take another look at Fidessa’s spangly new ‘HFT-free’ trading index. At first glance it seems to confirm the view that both institutional and retail volumes fell off badly in Europe.
But, er, hang on a minute. Before we ring the death knell for equities once more, maybe there is another reason. Oh yes, it was something called ‘the Easter break’ that shortened the trading days at the end of the month. So, if you reset the chart and average out the daily volume to get a weekly view, the picture looks very different.
Whilst institutional flow looks to be holding steady, it still seems like the retail market is continuing its shift into equities. Just before you all email me, I know this still doesn’t constitute a trend, but it does seem that there is some momentum behind this phenomenon that we identified a while back.
Maybe Spring really is just around the corner.
Steve, interesting. We measure data differently but would concur. By striating executed order flow with proprietary analytics, we show Rational Investment in US EQUITIES at roughly 15.5% of executed flow in the past five days, up slightly versus the 20-day period, and up significantly from the 12-mo. average. So active money is choosing equities at a higher rate. By contrast, passive investment (indexes and models and ETFs) is slipping. What does that mean? Good question. But what economic data supports buying equities? Movement is based on relative value, a risky proposition dependent not on facts but opinions and the velocity of money.
Thanks for the comment Tim and for concurring with our findings. It’s always risky claiming to have spotted something new! As to what it all means – not sure just yet but I will be sure to check the charts again next month.